Mexico's failed war


"As I see it, president Calderon naively thought that putting the army and federal police forces patrolling the streets will reduced some of the violence or intimidate the drug cartels, clearly that hasn’t been the case, so why does he continues to insist to deploy more soldiers and federal police officers?"

 By: Gabriel Infante Carrillo


When president Calderon launched the so called “War against the organize crime” few days after he took office back on December 2006, he promised that he would bring back peace and security to the country. During little more then three years since the army and federal polices forces were deployed to the hot spots where the drug cartels operates, Mexico have witness how the violence have been rapidly increasing, and the society has began questioning the effectiveness of the government strategy.

The most recent violent events that have taken place in Ciudad Juarez, considered to be one of the most violent city in the country; the indiscriminate murdered of 15 high school student, while they were in a party and three people linked to the U.S consulate office in that border city, both in hands of drug cartel hit-man, have made the Mexican government leave the state of lethargy that they were immerse ever since they launched this war, and now they are seeing the huge and difficult situation they have in their hands.

In the other hand, the U.S. government few months back praised and applauded to Felipe Calderon’s actions by saying that strategy was the correct one, and which I strongly criticized back then, questioning that Washington perception of this war seen from the other side of the border is completely different from those who daily witness a shootout and see a group of bodies mutilated, beheaded or hanging from a bridges, or simply they are just pure spectators as if they were watching an action film. And now less then a year and after a U.S government employee was killed in the streets of Ciudad Juarez, Barack Obama’s administration is beginning to get worried about the increasing violence and they are starting to question Mexico’s drug war strategy.
 
Few months back I exposed, on this blog and on France 24, that president Calderon rushed to launched this war without a well trace strategy and most of all, he and his advisers didn’t foresee the consequences that this could bring. I also pointed out that the main purpose of this war were more for political reasons rather then fighting seriously the drug cartels. In other words, he use this so call war to legitimize his presidency once and for all, and to improved his approval rate after the controversial and uncertain 2006 presidential election results, in which the left wing candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador accused Calderon and his party to have committed fraud.

As I see it, president Calderon naively thought that putting the army and federal police forces patrolling the streets will reduced some of the violence or intimidate the drug cartels, clearly that hasn’t been the case, so why does he continues to insist in deploying more soldiers and federal police officers? I don’t have any doubt that the Mexican army have had some victories, such as the killing of Arturo Beltran Leyva, a drug lords and arresting members of drug cartels, but it doesn’t mean that these powerful criminal organization are weaken or are in risk of disappearing, their just small wounds. These criminal organizations are like plants, if we pull off a branch or a leaf, in a couple of days it will grow back, but if we cut off the roots of the plant then we would be killing it. That is exactly what Calderon’s “strategy” is doing, just pulling off branches, but not cutting off the roots, which in this case is the money, that maintains operating these powerful criminal organization.

I strongly believe that this war will not be won with the army on the streets doing shootouts, killing drug lords and arresting members of drug cartels. And while they continue to patrol the streets, the drug gangs will target civilians just to discredit the armed forces. These war has to be fought in different fronts, but with low profile and base on intelligence, but most importantly the Mexican State has to go after the money, if they are really compromise to fight and jeopardize the drug gangs. It all depends on the willingness of President Calderon to accept that his initial strategy has failed and start to redesign a new strategy, if he wants to succeed.


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